With no ceasefire, there is no peace. Below, AmeriVet’s advisory board member, retired U.S. Air Force Major General Michael Snodgrass shares his latest updates on the Middle East:

• US Central Command has completed 11 nights of strikes against various military targets. Iranian air defenses were activated near Tehran, while state media reported explosions in several areas of the country. Iran targeted US forces and allies in the region, including Bahrain and Kuwait. Iran started this sequence of events with drone strikes on shipping July 8th. Assumptions on both sides have brought the conflict to this point.
• Iran assumed, for many years, that the US and allies would be content to manage an uneven peace in the region without all out assaults against Iran or its proxy network. More recently, Iran assumed that the US wanted a peace deal at any cost, and that they could use that as leverage to retain their nuclear program and impose tolls on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Finally, Iran assumed that the US Congress and Americans would quickly tire of the war and force President Trump to end the conflict on any terms.
• US assumptions did not serve the strategy. The US assumed Iran would quit their nuclear program after a few days of bombing. The US also seemingly assumed military and diplomatic support of allies was not necessary. Trump assumed American military power, so successful in Venezuela, would overwhelm Iranian forces and compel capitulation, or at least a deal. Finally, the US assumed sizable and attractive incentives would make Iran see the futility of continued conflict and accept the very gracious terms offered by the US.
• The Hamas attack, likely approved by Iran, changed the calculus for the region. Israel suffered a major attack and loss of life and began to eliminate the threat to their south. Once the Trump administration took over, Israel felt less constrained and with US assistance bombed Iran’s nuclear capability in June 2025. As proxy capabilities were reduced, Iran began to lose options but remained steadfast and unrelenting on their nuclear ambitions. After the current conflict started and negotiations began, Iran misinterpreted the desire of the US for peace as a lack of political will to continue, and continually changed the parameters, walked away from preliminary agreements and publicly changed their minds on the deal. Americans have tired of the war, but the regime has misread Trump and his determination to see an end to the conflict more suited to his terms than Tehran’s.
• 100+ days and over $37 billion into the conflict, the carrot and stick approach, well intended to be sure, is inappropriate for an end to the conflict. President Trump, despite likely advice to the contrary, believed in the invincibility of the US military to force Iran to accept his terms. Despite ignoring the sensibilities of allies in the region and across the globe, the President began asking for assistance in keeping the straits open. Iran in fact did not want a deal and felt they had the upper hand and could outwait the US.
• Iran will not negotiate in good faith. Military strikes, putting Americans and allies at continued risk, are the only solution for making Iran see they cannot wait out the US. Sanctions, however attractive, will hurt Iranians more than their government. Iran will try to rebuild their defenses and obfuscate the debate as long as possible while attacking US interests to sour America on the conflict before they are forced to relent and accept a deal. This will continue for some weeks or until a critical point is reached in the regime either through upheaval or logical analysis instead of religious zeal.

General Snodgrass is available for additional questions or discussion upon request.

 

About Michael Snodgrass

Michael Snodgrass retired from the U.S. Air Force as a Major General in 2011. He is currently the President of SG Strategic Solutions LLC.

He has extensive command and leadership experience in the U.S. Air Force and joint world, as well as a wide range of disciplines, including defense and aerospace, technology development, government acquisitions and requirements, foreign military sales and leadership coaching.

He consults with the government, defense industry and other businesses on a wide range of topics. In 2019 he became an adjunct contract professor supporting the U.S. Air Force on strategy and policy development.

From 2014 to 2016 he was Vice President, International Business Development at Raytheon Corp. Prior to that he was Director of U.S. Air Force and Federal Aviation Administration programs at Engility Corp.

General Snodgrass joined Burdeshaw and Associates in 2012 and is a Senior Consultant for numerous clients in the defense and aerospace sectors. Prior to his retirement, he was U.S. Air Force Assistant Deputy Under Secretary for International Affairs; responsible for formulating and executing USAF Policy, Strategy and Programs for Building Partnerships and integrating Air Force policy with international partner goals, totaling over $40 billion total program value.

From 2007 to 2010 he served as the first Chief of Staff, U.S. Africa Command. There, he was responsible for the construction of the country’s newest Unified Geographic Command.

He has commanded at the squadron, group and wing levels and has lived in/visited over 50 nations while in uniform. He has over 3500 flight hours in various aircraft including the F-16, F-15, F-4, C-130 and HH-60, as well as over 100 combat missions in Operation Desert Storm.

In addition, General Snodgrass teaches leadership and management courses. In his spare time, he provides leadership coaching and training to the U.S. Air Force ROTC unit at Florida State University.