Executive Summary

• While the US focuses inward and employs short term tactics to international strategy, China sees a decade ahead or more, building a new world order that excludes the US
• Modi is playing both sides from the middle effectively for the best interests of India
• The policy rollercoaster will continue. Many appear to have learned to ride out the turmoil while China and Russia make the most of the disarray and fallout.

The Summit between China, North Korea and Russia

There are many explanations for an apparent alignment after the September summit.  Closer alignment may be possible, but difficulties exist for each to maintain independent aspirations and yet form a unified coalition.

Russia needs allies and relief from sanctions over the war in Ukraine.  Putin was clear on the relationship with China.  Putin called Xi a “dear friend” after talks at the Great Hall of the People and Xi’s residence. “Our close communication reflects the strategic nature of Russia-China relations, which are at an unprecedentedly high level,” Putin told Xi on a video on the Kremlin’s Telegram channel. “We were always together then, and we remain together now.” China’s purchases of Russian energy and increasing trade have been a lifeline for Moscow since the start of the war.  The day before the parade, after over a decade of fruitless talks, Gazprom announced the nations had signed a memorandum for construction of Power of Siberia 2, a 1,615-mile gas pipeline. Since the start of the war, China’s imports of LNG have increased 60%+ from 47.7 to 76.6 BCM (billion cubic meters).[1]  The deal not final, as details must be worked out by Beijing.

Russia supplied ~22% of China’s gas imports in 2024, about 38 BCM of pipeline gas and LNG.  Higher amounts from the existing pipeline could raise Russia’s share of imports to over 25% next year.  Another 50 BCM from the new pipeline, after 2030, would double Russia’s share of China’s gas imports and increase China’s reliance on Russia…counter to China’s long-standing goal to reduce energy imports.  In ten years, China has gone from being the world’s sixth-largest gas producer to #4. Domestic production now meets 56% of China’s demand.[2]  A negative indicator is the fact there have been no authoritative statements from the Chinese government or media about the pipeline. While Russian media promotes the deal, and Western media re-reported these statements, Chinese government outlets and state media have been quiet, suggesting negotiations are not finalized. Key points are likely financing on both sides and price guarantees.[3]

Russia’s diplomatic strategy has been successful.  In 11 years, Russia has gone from international pariah to major player by thinking several steps ahead and out lasting the US and Europe.  After his surprise invasion of Crimea…phase one in his war on Ukraine, at the 2014 Brisbane G20 summit Putin was ignored by the west.  Xi spent more time with Obama than Putin. Invading a neighbor and shooting down a civilian aircraft were serious acts internationally condemned. Putin left the G20 early, not waiting for final statements.  Today Putin has “the cards”, continues the war in Ukraine, and ignores the west. Trump has reached out several times for peace and declared victory, yet fighting continues.  Alaska did not display Washington’s influence, but confirmed nothing can be decided without Putin, Russia’s President for over 21 years and is busy making deals in China. He sees the White House as a revolving door of endlessly changing policies but no sustainable strategy.

China is eager to undermine Trump.  Xi, sitting by Putin, used last week’s military parade marking Japan’s WWII defeat, to stress Beijing’s growing military and diplomatic power despite trade clashes with Washington.  The week was a clear message to the West: the world is changing. Evidence indicates a potential shift from a U.S.-dominated world order. This appears acceptable as Trump discards historic US roles and upends economic relationships with tariffs.  Xi has positioned China as a leader for nations that feel disadvantaged by the post-World War II order while seeming to claim Japan was defeated by China, with some help from Russia, leaving the US completely out of the discussion.

Wednesday’s parade in Beijing followed a regional summit in the city of Tianjin also attended by Indian Prime Minister Modi. There Xi proposed a vague but ambitious new “global governance initiative” whose goal is to create a more “just and equitable” international order, no longer dominated by the U.S. and the west.  It appears Beijing’s view is that Washington’s unfocused diplomatic approach and rifts among the world’s leading democracies give China opportunity, allowing Bejing to move closer to Russia and North Korea without risk of diplomatic fallout.  Xi’s address to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization on 1 September was a decree of intent on the rise of the Global South.  “We should advocate for equal and orderly multi-polarization of the world,” he said.  Steve Tsang, author of China’s Global Strategy under Xi Jinping, said Xi’s comments showed he was working “to transform the existing international order into a Sino-centric one.” Recently China has been trying be peacemaker amid trade tensions with the United States, Russia’s war in Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas/Iran/Yemen conflicts.  In a clear criticism of the current world order, Xi vowed to oppose “hegemonism,” “Cold War mentality” and “bullying practices.” [4]  “Xi is getting traction because Trump has so discredited the US and the liberal international order, and pushed its allies and partners away,” Tsang said.

The near-term future is not without potential high seas for China. Growth is projected to drop from 5.0% in 2024 to 4.5% in 2025 and 4.0% in 2026.  Trade restrictions will slow exports, and increased uncertainty will weigh down on manufacturing investment and labor demand: all while property values drop and consumer confidence and employment suffer.[5]  China plans on fiscal measures to boost growth and with more successes internationally, position itself as a reliable partner while Washington conducts economic warfare against former allies.  Instead of feeling pressure, Xi likely feels emboldened by support from other nations reeling from economic pressure from the US.

Secretary Rubio seemed to agree in January, saying the current world order is not in America’s interests.  According to Rubio, “The post-war global order is not just obsolete; it is now a weapon being used against us.”  But the US does not have a plan for a new world order.  While China focuses on an international order they lead, the US is focused on what is best for America.  Rubio: “Every dollar we spend, every program we fund and every policy we pursue must be justified with the answer to three simple questions: Does it make America safer? Does it make America stronger? Does it make America more prosperous?”[6]  These two different visions may possibly lead to the same place, but by very different paths.

North Korea, once part of the “Axis of Evil” now appears to be part of the Axis of Upheaval.  For months the Administration said discussions with Pyongyang were high on the agenda, in the works, that the President would soon be reaching out to Kim Jong Un to “do something” about North Korea. Clearly the failure for Trump to bring Kim to a deal during Trump 1 is something the President wants to correct.  However, the only significant event seems to have been Kim’s visit to Bejing to help Xi and Putin celebrate the 80^th anniversary of Japan’s defeat.  In 2018 Kim was under considerable pressure. The UN Security Councils harsh sanctions were upheld by the international community, including China and Russia, and it seemed a deal was the only way to reduce the pressure.  But in 2019 China began to see North Korea as an asset. By 2022 Kim was providing Russia much needed ammunition for the war in Ukraine as well as troops for their invasion.  In October 2024, North Korea’s accumulated revenues from ammo sales to Russia were estimated at $5.5 billion.[7]  While meeting with Kim last week, Xi said: “Faced with a turbulent and complex international landscape, China is willing to strengthen strategic communication with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, intensify exchanges and cooperation.”[8]  Inviting Kim to China was a strategic calculation by Beijing to provide unity with North Korea ahead of a possible meeting between Kim and President Trump later this year.  Kim may not have time for Trump as his relationship with Putin continues to deepen.  At the summit Kim told Putin “…if there’s anything I can do for you and the people of Russia, if there is more that needs to be done, I will consider it as a brotherly obligation, an obligation that we surely need to bear.”[9]

While the US focuses inward and employs a short term, transactional approach to international strategy, China is thinking a decade ahead or more in building a new world order that excludes the US.

India/US Relations on the Rocks but trying to recover

The US raised tariffs on India to 50% in retaliation for India continuing to purchase Russian oil as Trump sought to pressure Putin.  The corrosion started in the spring when the US claimed credit for ending another conflict between India and Pakistan.  As the conflict calmed, Trump reported his involvement: “I said, come on, we’re going to do a lot of trade with you guys. Let’s stop it. … If you don’t stop it, we’re not going to do any trade,’” Trump said. “And all of a sudden, they said, I think we’re going to stop,” Trump credited trade leverage for influencing the decision. “For a lot of reasons, but trade is a big one,” he said.  However, India strongly rejected the President’s recollection of events.  Randhir Jaiswal, India’s foreign ministry spokesman, said top leaders in New Delhi and Washington were in touch following the standoff with Pakistan. “The issue of trade didn’t come up in any of these discussions (between VP Vance and Modi, as well as between Rubio and his counterpart, S. Jaishankar),” Jaiswal said.[10]  In June, Modi re-emphasized to Trump that the ceasefire was accomplished bi-laterally with Pakistan.  Modi emphasized that India has not accepted mediation in the past and will never do so.  On August 7^th, the US announced tariffs on Indian goods would double to 50%.  Peter Navarro told reporters outside the White House that the decision to raise tariffs was “a pure national security issue associated with India’s abject refusal to stop buying Russia oil.”[11]  This reverses the relationship’s tone in February when Modi visited the US and the leaders agreed to increase trade to $500 billion by 2030.  Despite these statements, and in line with India’s historical self-view as leader of the non-aligned movement, India has resisted U.S. demands for trade concessions on agriculture, dairy and seafood: sectors that employ tens of millions of Indians.  Claiming credit for the reduction in tensions has only pushed Modi farther away. Consequently, as Putin, Xi and Modi met, overt exhibitions of friendship were a loud message aimed at the west and Trump.  Resentment was widespread in New Delhi at Trump’s attempts to use tariffs to manipulate India’s policies.[12]  However, years of conflict on the northern India border with China has left a significant impact on New Delhi’s view of Chinese intentions as well.  How that trust can be rebuilt, possibly with material supplied from America’s new approach to international relations, has yet to be seen.  For America’s part, repair of the relationship has already started with indirect communications between the leaders.  Trump recently said the US and India have a “special relationship”, to which Modi responded “Deeply appreciate and fully reciprocate President Trump’s sentiments and positive assessment of our ties. India and the U.S. have a very positive and forward-looking Comprehensive and Global Strategic Partnership.”[13]  Again Modi is playing both sides from the middle effectively with the best interests of India foremost in his strategy.  The US must be careful however, as the Indian government can be a bit prickly when it comes to national pride.  Commerce Secretary Lutnick told Bloomberg TV Friday that India would eventually concede. “In a month or two months, I think India is going to be at the table and they’re going to say they’re sorry and they’re going to try to make a deal with Donald Trump,” he said.  In the history of India’s government such an apology has never occurred.  Secretary Lutnick’s comments are ill advised and likely unhelpful to any resolution.

Concurrently, the US is preparing a significant overhaul of the H-1B visa program to tighten rules for professionals educated in the US who seek employment.  India reportedly has a 58% to 72% share of these visas, providing a significant workforce to US companies.  Jobs in mathematics, engineering, technology, and medical sciences often qualify. Discussions on changing the policy guidelines into regulations have been going on for many months.  The first Trump administration tightened H-1B visas by increasing denial rates and slowing processing times, making it harder for people to get visas.  Tightening of visas for H-1B does not appear directly related to the Trump Modi fallout but clearly tensions between leaders cannot avoid affecting related issues.

Conclusions

China’s leadership has a clear strategy.  By bringing Putin and Kim closer and making overtures to Modi, Xi has laid the groundwork for a closer, more unified position to counter America’s dominance across the globe.  Much of the detailed work on these relationships is yet to be done, but without a clear counter strategy that goes beyond “America First” the US may get it’s wish and be more internally focused not by design but by losing control of events.  The White House must ask itself if America First does also mean having allies and alliances that we can rely on to affect world events not only in our best interests, but in the interests of peace and security.  The two are not naturally mutually exclusive, but the US appears to act as though that is the case.

It is likely the Trump rollercoaster of policy changes and statements will continue.  World leaders in the west appear to have learned to ride out the highs and lows, while China and Russia appear to be making the most of the disarray and fallout.

[1] See:  Reuters.com china-russia-pipeline-diplomacy-threatens-trumps-energy-grip

[2] See:  https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review

[3] See:  Atlanticcouncil.org why-china-and-russia-are-unlikely-to-move–pipeline-forward/

[4] See:  https://www.newsweek.com/china-shanghai-sco-xi-2122475

[5] See:  Worldbank CEU-June-2025-EN.pdf

[6] See:  Opening-remarks-by-secstate-designate-rubio-before-senate-foreign-relations-committee

[7] See:  https://www.foreignaffairs.com/north-korea/north-koreas-second-chance?s=EDZZZ005ZX

[8] See:  Asia.nikkei.com china-will-deepen-ties-with-north-korea-xi-tells-kim

[9] See:  AP news.com china-russia-north-korea-xi-putin-kim

[10] See:  NBC news.com india-disputes-trumps-claim-trade-incentives-led-pakistan-ceasefire

[11] See:  https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/08/14/india-modi-trump-tariffs-trade/

[12] See:  The Guardian. putin-xi-modi-meet-message-to-west-trump-tariffs

[13] See:  https://asia.nikkei.com/politics/international-relations/indo-pacific/us-india-rebuild-proposals-range-from-lng-to-new-alliance?del_type=11&pub_date=202509102330000900&seq_num=5&si=__MERGE__user_id__MERGE__

Learn more about the author, Advisory Board member and retired U.S. Air Force Major General Michael Snodgrass.