Executive Summary

• The likelihood of a long-lasting cease fire in the region hinges on discussions with Iran and peace initiatives in Gaza and the West Bank/Lebanon.
• The attack, methods and tactics used by Hamas on October 7, 2023, fundamentally changed the nature of the conflict with Israel, to the detriment of Hamas.
• Conflict in Gaza continues with no strategic plan in sight.
• A Palestinian state is unacceptable to the Israelis, unworkable and not realistic, but other options may allow for political compromise for Palestinians in all areas.

Iran vs Israel:  Will the peace hold?

Iran finds itself on an island. Despite pre-existing economic and military hardware relationships with the Islamic Republic; Russia, the People’s Republic of China (PRC), and North Korea offered little tangible assistance during Israeli and US strikes on Iran’s nuclear program.  Realistically, these nations are at best opportunistic and transactional cohorts with some common objectives: embarrass or diminish the US and allies in the region without suffering setbacks in other areas with the US. The region is militarily imbalanced in favor of the Israelis, and the new strategic balance injects significant uncertainty in any discussions on lasting peace. For his part, in May Putin tried to use the conflict (pre-attack) as an opportunity to improve his relationship with the United States in order to secure concessions regarding Ukraine. That effort has backfired as President Trump has called Putin out several times for changing his agreements and has stepped up support to Ukraine as a consequence.  Russia’s willingness to support Iran materially was also likely limited by its relationships with Israel and the Arab Gulf States. Iran has long pleaded with Russia for higher-end and more modern platforms such as S-400 air defense systems and Su-35 fighter aircraft, but Russia has refused to provide these capabilities.[1] China also maintains close economic ties with Israel, Iran (mostly through oil exports), and Iran’s regional adversaries in the Gulf.  This complex tapestry has historically caused Beijing to limit its support for Iran’s more risky ventures.

Iran’s Axis of Resistance has suffered an almost complete dismantling by Israel. The US has actively taken steps to beat back the Houthi threat in the Red Sea and directly attacked Iran’s nuclear capability.  It is now possible that the 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is actively searching for his replacement.  Vali Nasr, an Iran expert at Johns Hopkins University and the author of Iran’s Grand Strategy: A Political History recently said to NPR “Everything in Iran in the past four or five years has really been about succession.”  More recently, the Supreme Leader and senior officials are staying underground, and using person to person communication instead of electronic means of communication.  Two weeks ago, three Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders were killed including Saeed Izadi who led the Palestine Corps of the RGCs overseas arm, known as the Quds Force.  The Quds were a “key coordinator” between Iran and Hamas and helped arm the terrorist group ahead of its Oct. 7, 2023, attack.  Benham Shahriyari. who led the arm’s weapons transfer unit responsible for supplying missiles and rockets launched at Israel to Hezbollah, Hamas and Yemen’s Houthis, was also killed.[2]

For now, peace will last if Iran does not put a full-strength effort into rebuilding their nuclear capability and refrains from attacks against either Israel or the US and its allies.  It is unlikely Russia, North Korea[3] or China will come to the aid of the Iranian leaders or their nuclear ambitions as long as the Trump Administration continues military support for Ukraine and threatens tariffs against China.  The media debate on Iran’s nuclear program has centered on the number of years it will take for Iran to rebuild their capabilities and once again be able to field a nuclear missile.  This debate misses the point entirely.  It is important to note that any estimate, even from the US intelligence community, is underpinned with many assumptions at this early stage.  The level of destruction actually visited on the program is chief among those assumptions.  Also assumed is the possible investment Iran’s leadership is willing to make in refurbishing, rebuilding or reacquiring those lost capabilities at a time when its leadership is under a very real threat of destruction and replacement.  The most important outcome, lost in the discussion, is the fact that Iran, Russia and other potential adversaries are now on notice that President Trump is more than willing to use the force necessary to deter and eliminate potential threats.  This is clear and unambiguous. For the remaining three and a half years of Trump’s administration, failure to adhere to a more normalized diplomatic discussion and show real progress on areas the US considers to be of vital national interest will not be met merely with economic sanctions and rhetoric.  If, for example, Russia decides to double down and provide advanced military capabilities to Iran to protect their nuclear program, Putin risks not only the destruction of those capabilities in Iran but also solidifying US and European resistance to his desire to keep land acquired by his invasion of Ukraine.

The US may still use sanctions against Iran to keep pressure on the regime to come to the table.  At the end of the day, Trump wants a peace deal that lasts and allows for economic opportunity in the region.  He is unafraid to use any element of power necessary to ensure Iran is focused on an agreement first, and their nuclear ambitions later.

Israel and Gaza

Fighting continues.  On Monday 7 July five IDF soldiers were killed and 14 soldiers were wounded in Beit Hanun by Hamas.  They were ambushed when the terrorist group managed to place improvised explosive devices (IED) between air force and artillery barrages.[4] The following day, while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was at the White House, the Israel Air Force struck over 100 terror targets across Gaza.  The IDF said this included terrorists, booby-trapped structures, weapons storage facilities, anti-tank missile launch posts, tunnels, and other sites. At the same time, they located and dismantled a cache of explosive devices and landmines hidden in a civilian structure.  Soldiers also killed members of a terrorist cell, dismantled military structures used for terrorist purposes, and struck a Hamas weapons facility.[5]  Not to be forgotten, Houthi rebels attacked a Greek-owned bulk carrier Monday after the Liberian-flagged Magic Seas ship came under fire from the Houthis on Sunday. The crew abandoned the ship, and it sank in the Red Sea.

Netanyahu’s visit to Trump and the media coverage of their discussions have completely overshadowed activity in Gaza.  Netanyahu shared that his meeting with Trump focused on efforts to secure the release of the remaining Gaza hostages and destroy Hamas’s military capabilities.  “We are determined to achieve all our goals: the release of all our hostages, the destruction of Hamas’s military and governmental capabilities, and thereby ensuring that Gaza will no longer pose a threat to Israel,” the prime minister said of Gaza.  President Trump supported Netanyahu’s statement: “I think we’re close to a deal on Gaza. Could have it this week,” Trump told reporters on Sunday. “I think there’s a good chance we have a deal with Hamas during the week pertaining to quite a few of the hostages.”[6]

Israel is fixated on eliminating Hamas’ leadership.  This very focused tactical goal does not address the future of Gaza and Palestinians living there.  Clearly there are hostile feelings against the IDF for their execution of operations in Gaza that will sprout new leaders who are able to focus Gaza residents on exacting some measure of pain from IDF units in their neighborhoods.  Israel needs a long-term strategy that addresses how the remaining residents of Gaza will govern themselves or be governed by some combination of IDF and/or civilians working with them. Bland statements of willingness to live peacefully with Palestinians are countered by more specific statements.

Netanyahu: “…we are determined… to complete our war objectives in Gaza: to release all our hostages, to bring about the destruction of Hamas’s military and governmental capabilities, and of course to ensure that Gaza will no longer be a threat to Israel. That means there is no Hamas. This needs to be understood. This is not something we are just saying. It is tied up with a certain strategy that I will not detail here and with actions, some of which are painful, and some of which will hurt Hamas very badly. The final result will be the release of all our hostages and the defeat and dismantling of Hamas. Gaza will no longer be a threat to Israel. We have not yet finished the job.”[7]

Tell Me How This Ends:

In his book General David Petraeus outlines how the US became mired in Iraq fighting factions that resisted our “help” and killed Americans who thought they were freeing the people from Saddam Hussein.  Reasons for the failure of US policy in Iraq are well documented, but also possibly applicable to Israel’s occupation and potential administration of Palestinians in Gaza.  Clearly what is left of Hamas can motivate fighters to resist the IDF, and the IDF does not help their cause with some of their tactics and reported brutality.  Both sides must acknowledge some realities and avoid some mistakes.

Realities

Israel must realize they cannot defeat an ideology with military force.  They have shown their ability to use force to reduce the leadership of Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran to a shell of their former ranks.  However, eliminating the hatred that these activities have fed must start with some compromises on Gaza and the West Bank.  Palestinians are fragmented, Hamas alone has nine factions, but all are united in their dislike of Israel and frustrated by their inability to have a land of their own.  Israel cannot simply walk away from Gaza given the level of destruction they have visited on the infrastructure and the people.  Israel also cannot rebuild Gaza alone and should not try to occupy and administer Gaza’s 2 million inhabitants going forward.  The focus must be on getting hostages released and developing a long-term strategy for the area.  Continuing to occupy with military force is putting those units at continued risk of attack, which then spurs the leadership of Israel to respond with more military force.

Palestinians must realize that a geographically contiguous Palestinian state is not an achievable goal.  Those in Gaza do not want to relocate to the West Bank or Lebanon, and those with ties to the Jordan river do not want to move into a devastated Gaza strip with no industry or economic future.  A political option that may include self-rule or representative rule in coordination with Israel might be an possibility.

Hamas must realize that their control over Gaza is a fraction of what it was only months ago, and their leaders are all but dead.  Hamas likely believes the remaining hostages are their only leverage, but this is a failed methodology.  They must be willing to release the hostages, take responsibility for their people, and negotiate with good faith for the future of their people. Current Syrian leadership offers an example to follow.

The US has helped Israel with their fight against an Iranian nuclear weapon and shown the region they are willing to get their hands dirty as necessary to secure peace.  It is clear the Trump administration has brought the players into a new reality that may allow for expansion of the Abraham Accords, diplomacy with Saudi Arabia and other regional leaders and a pathway for Palestinians that was not possible a year ago.

The US must realize that the rebuilding of Gaza is not an insignificant project.  Whimsical statements about the real estate potential of Gaza aside, the actual relocation of sizeable segments of the population in the hundreds of thousands at a time into temporary facilities (not yet sited or built) while clearing the debris and simultaneously designing what is built and for whom is not something the US or any nation can dictate to Palestinians.  Estimates for rebuilding Gaza range from $53 billion to over $80 billion.  The time to rebuild will take over a decade and require a commitment from the US and Arab allies who have long stated their desire for a solution to the Palestinian issue.  As a precursor to all this work, Palestinians must agree to what end state they will accept before billions are spent clearing debris and constructing a new home.  The US must also lead in bringing Hezbollah into the discussion and leverage the international commitment to generate an agreement on all Palestinians’ future vis-à-vis Israel.

Conclusion

Israel has managed to reduce their threat on multiple fronts over the past year.  Not only Hamas, but Iran and Hezbollah have been severely damaged by Israel (with some help from the US).  Iran is in the beginning stages of a significant leadership change which may offer some daylight for improving relations in the region if they can be satisfied with nuclear power and give up plans for a nuclear weapon (which is unlikely).  The international community, long focused on solving what has been an intractable Palestinian issue, may need to step up financially as well as logistically and from a security perspective if this window of opportunity is to be fully explored.

[1] See:  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-30/russia-rejected-iran-s-400-missiles-request-amid-gulf-tension

[2] See:  https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-858461

[3] It is important to note that some North Korea observers have recently remarked that the Israel-Iran war may have significantly strengthened Pyongyang’s nuclear resolve and reaffirmed to Kim Jong Un that maintaining his nuclear program is the only way to secure North Korea’s future.  See:  https://www.csis.org/analysis/what-do-strikes-iran-mean-china-russia-and-north-korea

[4] See:  https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/article-860387

[5] See:  https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/article-860449

[6] See:  https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/07/07/trump-netanyahu-gaza-ceasefire-mideast/

[7] See:  https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-860517

Learn more about the author, Advisory Board member and retired U.S. Air Force Major General Michael Snodgrass.