Executive Summary
The MOU is the beginning. Everything hinges on the Final Agreement (FA), which is the end state.

Current Situation
The US and Iran have a piece of paper on the table, a Memorandum of Understanding, that outlines criteria for an end to the fighting, some relief of sanctions on Iran, and a path forward for additional talks to reach a final deal and end the war. So far, the actual text has not been officially released but several news outlets claim they have read and/or discussed its contents with “senior officials”. Israel was not given access to the text reportedly out of fear of a leak prior to the official signing on 19 June.

Bottom line: This is not a peace deal. The MOU is a temporary halt in hostilities that will be promoted by both sides as a victory while allowing oil and other materials to flow to the world’s economy. Reports continue that Trump’s senior advisers are split on the utility of the MOU. The major points of contention are pushed out for the FA.

There are 14 articles in the MOU. Of those, 10 key items are contingent on the FA. For example: Withdrawal of all US forces within 30 days of signing the FA; Implementation of the $300B (minimum) rehabilitation and economic development fund; Ending all sanctions against Iran including all UN and IAEA primary and secondary restrictions; Final disposition of all enriched nuclear materials; and Iran’s nuclear program will remain intact.

What Iran gets now:
1. Ceasefire on all fronts, including Lebanon where their proxy has taken severe casualties from Israel. Upon signing the MOU, the Strait will reopen for traffic with no charge for 60 days only. This is an implicit recognition of Iran’s right to charge a toll on shipping.
2. A US promise to refrain from interfering in Iran’s affairs (and vice versa).
3. An open-ended timeline for the FA. Article 3 lays out a desire to reach a final agreement within 60 days, “extendable by mutual consent”.
4. Immediately lift the Naval Blockade. No mention of restrictions on tolls for shipping.
5. A $300B development fund and ending all sanctions as part of the final agreement.
6. Postponement of discussions regarding the nuclear program until the final agreement which will address Iran’s “nuclear needs” and resolve the disposition of stockpiled enriched material.
7. No new sanctions by the US and a freeze on US military force strength in the region.
8. Upon signing the MOU until all sanctions are finally lifted, the United States Treasury Department will issue waivers for exports of Iranian crude oil, petrochemical products and their derivatives, and all related services, including banking, insurance, transportation, and the like.
9. As negotiations proceed, the US will release all frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran and made fully available.

Conclusion
If the US could count on Iran negotiating in good faith this framework could provide a substantial basis for future peace in the region. However, it is more likely this will only be another delaying tactic by the regime as they seek funding to recover from sanctions and military defeats on the battlefield. They will try to funnel support to Hezbollah and Hamas, rebuild their defenses (with Russia and China as willing partners), and obfuscate discussions on their enriched uranium and nuclear program as long as possible. The US gets a temporary peace that may extend to the end of the calendar year…or not.

 

About Michael Snodgrass

Michael Snodgrass retired from the U.S. Air Force as a Major General in 2011. He is currently the President of SG Strategic Solutions LLC.

He has extensive command and leadership experience in the U.S. Air Force and joint world, as well as a wide range of disciplines, including defense and aerospace, technology development, government acquisitions and requirements, foreign military sales and leadership coaching.

He consults with the government, defense industry and other businesses on a wide range of topics. In 2019 he became an adjunct contract professor supporting the U.S. Air Force on strategy and policy development.

From 2014 to 2016 he was Vice President, International Business Development at Raytheon Corp. Prior to that he was Director of U.S. Air Force and Federal Aviation Administration programs at Engility Corp.

General Snodgrass joined Burdeshaw and Associates in 2012 and is a Senior Consultant for numerous clients in the defense and aerospace sectors. Prior to his retirement, he was U.S. Air Force Assistant Deputy Under Secretary for International Affairs; responsible for formulating and executing USAF Policy, Strategy and Programs for Building Partnerships and integrating Air Force policy with international partner goals, totaling over $40 billion total program value.

From 2007 to 2010 he served as the first Chief of Staff, U.S. Africa Command. There, he was responsible for the construction of the country’s newest Unified Geographic Command.

He has commanded at the squadron, group and wing levels and has lived in/visited over 50 nations while in uniform. He has over 3500 flight hours in various aircraft including the F-16, F-15, F-4, C-130 and HH-60, as well as over 100 combat missions in Operation Desert Storm.

In addition, General Snodgrass teaches leadership and management courses. In his spare time, he provides leadership coaching and training to the U.S. Air Force ROTC unit at Florida State University