The US and Israel did not attempt to build a coalition of nations prior to attacking. Iran’s intransigence, their tactic for decades, was the impetus to strike. The US is paying a price for intimidation tactics with some allies who are disinterested in helping and miffed because they were not consulted.
America could have predicted Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz and built a coalition of nations to confront Iran. After 9-11 the US secured NATO support and a 136-nation coalition of military assistance. Over 170 nations ultimately participated in the war on terror. Trump asked “about seven” nations for assistance last week, then reversed his request after being rebuffed by NATO, Japan, and Australia.
Russia and China support Iran. Also predictable, they provide target locations (Russia, denied by Putin) and rocket fuel chemicals (China, sodium perchlorate). Russia received Iranian drones and munitions for its war in Ukraine. Neither want an Iran with nuclear weapons but are happy Iran is a major thorn in Trump’s side.
All events were entirely predictable. Iran’s closure of the strait and attacks on allies were plainly options for Iran. Drone ships to attack civilian ships have reportedly been used recently. If only one attack succeeds, it is a victory for Iran.
After threatening Iran’s power infrastructure, President Trump postponed any strikes for five days, citing “productive conversations” with Tehran to end the war. Iran responded, saying there had been no direct talks and Trump’s move was designed to affect the markets and “buy time” for his military plans. This may be another instance of the President spiking the ball before crossing the goal line.
Unconfirmed reports are that Pakistan’s army chief, Asim Munir, spoke with President Trump about a possible de-escalation, and Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif spoke with Iranian President Pezeshkian on Monday. Officials are possibly providing a backchannel for Tehran and Steve Witkoff to secure a brief ceasefire and space for negotiations.
Trump’s outreach to China for their support in securing the strait was a wise strategic move, if atypical. Iran depends on China for energy revenue and diplomatic backing. Yet China has not congratulated Mojtaba Khamenei the new supreme leader. Beijing walks a thin line to avoid jeopardizing relations with other Middle East partners like Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
The US and Israel are in a tough situation. If the US sues for peace without regime change, Iran will be vindicated for oppression at home and intimidation against neighbors. The conflict could extend if there is no ceasefire and they re-attempt to decapitate the leadership and stimulate a popular revolt. If the conflict lasts, oil prices and markets will (over) react adversely, especially after Trump’s premature declaration of peace talks. China benefits both on a global scale as US leadership suffers credibility problems, and regionally as the US expends resources that could be used to deter, or fight, an invasion of Taiwan.
