A very busy week ahead as the corporate calendar hits the ground running.

The markets will continue to adapt to tariff policy which will be part of the administration’s economic plan moving forward. Negotiation, revenue, inflation growth are the buckets. Reciprocity on the table this week. We expect the Fed Chair to reiterate themes of late: Policy in a good place, can afford to be patient, Fed independence, and regulatory reform. On the long end and US Treasury’s quarterly refunding we see a short-term range in UST 10-year of 4.25-4.75%.

Risks balance we could be +/ 25-50 basis points. And inflation and consumer: PPI/CPI/Retail Sales. Focus on housing and rents but the Fed needs to see 0-.2 month over month in CPI/PCE to feel comfortable with more rate cuts. Inflation expectations moving higher raises the bar for further rate cuts.

Have a great week!