One of the more interesting blackout periods in some time. The markets grappling with 25 versus 50 to begin. We had the same narrative leading into March of 2022 but the magnitude and speed that ensued prevailed and was far more relevant.

It will likely prove the same way on the way down. But we’ve priced aggressively short term. Last week the forwards converging to the Fed’s longer term neutral rate of 2.80%. We have favored duration with a steepening bias over the past four months.

This week, all eyes on inflation. More relevant for Fed pricing next week. And US Treasury supply, a good test for investor appetite at these outright yield levels.