Executive Summary

• South Korean President Yoon will either resign or face another impeachment vote soon. Robust trade will continue as Korea is a net exporter to the US
• Syria’s government falls. Rebel leader Abu Mohammed Al-Golani moves to consolidate power and must play off US, Israel, Turkey, Russia and Iran all at once.

South Korea Update

Since taking office in 2022, President Yoon has struggled to move any substantive issues through the government.  A committed conservative and former prosecutor, he went rapidly from political neophyte to president on May 10, 2022.  He replaced the liberal party that failed to resolve the North Korean nuclear crisis and address an underperforming economy.  Yoon stressed trilateral cooperation with the United States and Japan to counter North Korea’s threats and improved ties with Tokyo. The South Korean economy showed lethargic, if stable, growth from 2014 to 2019 with annual changes in GDP between 3.2% and 2.24% in 2019, but 2020 reported a decrease to   -0.71%.  In 2021, the economy reported a 4.2% increase in growth only to be followed in 2022 with 2.6% and 1.4% last year.[1]

Any progress has been stymied by near-constant friction with an opposition-controlled parliament, threats of annihilation from North Korea and scandals involving Yoon and his wife. Observers say he takes criticism personally, relies on advice of hardcore loyalists, and makes impulsive decisions.  “President Yoon isn’t well-prepared, and he does things off the cuff,” according to Choi Jin, director of the Seoul-based Institute of Presidential Leadership, said. “He also tends to express his emotions too directly.” [2] After months of low public approval, Yoon declared martial law on 2 December, deploying special forces troops into the streets of Seoul, generating political protests.  In his martial law announcement, Yoon called parliament a “den of criminals” bogging down state affairs and vowed to eliminate “shameless North Korea followers and anti-state forces.”

South Korea’s constitution gives the president power to use the military to keep order in “wartime, war-like situations or other comparable national emergency states.” Martial law can include things like suspending civil rights (freedom of the press and assembly), and temporarily limiting powers of the courts and government agencies.  Lawmakers rushed to the building as soon as they heard Yoon’s declaration. The National Assembly is authorized by the constitution to lift such a declaration with a majority vote. The vote was 190-0 including 18 members of Yoon’s party.

On 7 December, the opposition-led effort to impeach Yoon failed, but the parties pledged a new impeachment motion this week. At 10:00 AM Saturday, President Yoon apologized for the “anxiety and inconvenience” caused by declaring martial law, saying he would take “legal and political responsibility” for his action. “I’m very sorry and I apologize to the public, who must have been deeply surprised,” he said in a televised address.[3]

The South Korean Justice Ministry imposed an overseas travel ban against President Yoon 8 December amid an investigation into charges over his brief martial law declaration.  The Defense Ministry last week separately suspended three top military commanders over their alleged involvement in imposing martial law.

What happens in South Korea is of significant concern to US consumers and investors. US imported goods and services from totaled $130.1 billion in 2022, a deficit of $35.7 billion with the fourth largest economy in Asia.[4]  Major exports from the US to Korea: Oils, Minerals, Agricultural, Plastics, Leather goods, Chemicals, Machinery and Appliances, Transportation equipment and Medical/other instruments are over 90% of US exports.[5]  The crisis rattled global financial markets and left South Korea’s benchmark KOSPI index KS11 down 1.4%, with year-to-date losses of over 7%.  It is the worst performing major stock market in Asia this year.  Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok sent an emergency note to global financial chiefs and credit rating agencies late Wednesday which said the market was functioning as usual, and the ministry was working to alleviate any adverse impacts.[6]

Yoon may face another impeachment vote.  National Assembly Speaker Woo Won-shik said that the total number of votes cast Saturday was 195, 5 short of the minimum needed.  Yoon’s People Power Party (PPP) boycotted the opposition-led impeachment vote. At least 200 of the 300-member legislature must cast ballots for the process to be valid. After the vote, PPP leader Han Dong-hoon said the party had decided Yoon would resign. “The PPP will pursue an orderly departure of the president in order to minimize confusion for the people,” Han said, adding that until Yoon leaves, he would be “effectively excluded from his duties, and the prime minister will consult with the party to manage state affairs.”[7]

President Yoon’s approval rating tumbled to a record low of 13%, a survey showed Friday, following public backlash over his martial law declaration. If impeached, Yoon’s powers will be suspended until the Constitutional Court decides on removing him from office. If removed or resigns, an election must take place within 60 days.  Support for the ruling People Power Party fell 5 points from the previous week to 27%, while support for the PPP’s main opposition, the Democratic Party of Korea, rose 4 points to 37%.

Unless Yoon makes another, more convincing apology to the populace it is likely the PPP will ask him to step down to avoid another impeachment vote.  Korean’s will be impatient for action. The people will force a decision sooner than later.

Syria’s Government Falls

After 50+ years of brutal dictatorship, the Assad family no longer controls Syria.  In 1966, during the so-called Hama riot, Hafez Assad’s approach became the family ideology: any opposition should be violently crushed.  That approach was clear in the period after he took power in 1971, as he gradually established his Alawite minority at the center of a total police state. His repression of the Muslim Brotherhood in the mid-1970s culminated in the Hama massacre of 1982 when prisoners were murdered en masse.  Muslim Brotherhood figures and entire families were assassinated. In February 1982 the village of Hama was subjected to a scorched-earth land and aerial assault, killing thousands.

Bashar was not his father’s intended successor.  Bashar, who was in London at medical school, was never considered as his father’s replacement.  His brother Bassel was earmarked for rule until his death in a car crash in 1994.  After Hafez’s death, as time went on, it became clear that despite an initial honeymoon with the West in 2000 to 2002, Bashar would rule using the Syrian military and intelligence agencies.  Even then, in an “I told you so” moment after the attacks on 9/11 by al-Qaeda, he insisted that his father had been “right” all along in his brutal crushing of Islamist insurgents.

In 2012, leaks of thousands of hacked emails by WikiLeaks relating to Bashar’s family and activities provided insight into the Assads: PR consultants advising how to appear to be reforming Syria while pursuing a violent crackdown. That year, as Russian military advisers began arriving to bolster the regime, emails outlined Bashar’s personal involvement in signing off on daily orders for the continuing violence. [8]  The civil war cost over 500,000 lives, while international attention centered on ISIS and their brutality in the north.  Assad reacted with chemical weapons, crossing President Obama’s “red line” with virtually no consequences.  Seeing opportunity, Putin sent military aid and forces to Syria to support Assad.  Adding Russian forces reinforced Assad’s position which was also supported by Iran, who used Damascus as logistics support for Hezbollah against Israel.

Syria, the failed state, was therefore heavily dependent on others for support, and as Moscow’s focus on Ukraine reached a tipping point, Israel moved to eliminate Hezbollah and their Syrian connections.  Syria was in fact fundamental to the Iran’s strategy to defeat Israel because of its ability to move weapons to Lebanon and Gaza.  Tehran’s axis of resistance began to weaken at the same time Russia was unable or unwilling to shore up the regime.  The fall of Assad severely weakens Iran’s influence.

“Assad crumbled not just because of a well-planned jihadist campaign,” wrote Hassan Hassan, editor-in-chief of New Lines, “but because 13 years of civil war have left his army a husk, and his soldiers demoralized.”  The US is focused on ISIS while Israel is concerned about Hezbollah and the Syrian army’s abandoned weapons and equipment.  The U.S. carried out a major round of airstrikes on ISIS targets Sunday and warned the terror group against trying to regain strength.  The operation included dozens of airstrikes on over 75 ISIS targets using B-52 bombers, F-15 fighters and A-10 close-air support aircraft “to ensure ISIS does not seek to take advantage of the current situation to reconstitute in central Syria,” according to U.S. Central Command.[9]

Clearly the regimes fall was due to the lack of support from former allies and pressure from without, but also from within by Abu Mohammed Al-Golani.  Al-Golani was al-Qaeda in 2003 but split off in 2011 to form his own Islamist group, Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), which means the Organization for the Liberation of the Levant, a region including Syria, Lebanon, Jordan and Israel. He has been labeled a terrorist by the United States, with a $10 million bounty for information leading to his capture. Over time HTS took on civil administration of occupied lands, fixing infrastructure and instituting a level of social order where destruction had existed before.  Leading these efforts was Mohammed al Bashir, an electrical engineer with a law degree and newly appointed Prime Minister of Free Syria.

Al-Golani’s public appearances and outreach efforts indicate his effort to redefine HTS as a nationalist force, engaging local communities and presenting the group as a viable alternative to the Assad regime and other terrorist organizations.  In 2021, Al-Golani conducted interviews with various media outlets, including Western platforms, aiming to shift perceptions of HTS and expressed a willingness to engage on broader political issues.  Now he is in a position of influence, if not power, and has larger questions to address.

The Biden administration is not wasting time in trying to shape these unfolding events.  SecState Blinken has called for a “Syrian-led and Syrian-owned political transition.” He said that the “process should lead to credible, inclusive and nonsectarian governance that meets international standards of transparency and accountability.”  However, the “process” to date consists of al-Bashir appointed as the temporary prime minister and statements about sorting out “constitutional issues” until March 2025.[10]

If Syria’s new leadership makes progress on meeting some, if not all Blinken’s criteria, a result could be the United States recognizing a future Syrian government, and potentially lifting some or all sanctions on the country’s economy.  This move would be a significant signal of support to Syria’s new leaders by the outgoing administration.

Conclusion

After establishing a government, New Syria must deal with Israel.  At the collapse, the IDF took quick measures to reduce infrastructure put in place by Iran to funnel weapons to Lebanon.  Any public statements urging attacks against Israel will be met with force.  Simultaneously, they must deal with the situation in the north as Turkey supports factions fighting the Kurds, the US backing some Syrian democratic forces in country and Iraq on their northeastern border.  Will Al-Golani be a realist and look at his new nation as a leader trying to solve problems and negotiate for their well-being, or will he revert to his Islamist roots with al-Qaeda and use extremism to garner local support?

In 2021, al-Golani’s first interview was with an American PBS journalist. In a blazer, a more soft-spoken HTS leader said his group posed no threat to the West and any sanctions were unjust.  “Yes, we have criticized Western policies,” he said. “But to wage a war against the United States or Europe from Syria, that’s not true. We didn’t say we wanted to fight.”[11]

His best next move would be to reach out to the US and convince the administration of his peaceful intent, using US influence to restrain Israel while he consolidates his grip on Syria.  It is possible he will continue to accept support from Iran, if offered, but without ideological strings or promises to support Hezbollah in Lebanon.  In the short term he will secure his power base and look over the landscape he has created.  How he moves forward from there will depend on if the Biden administration loses the initiative to Trump or if Russia and/or Iran again try to establish influence.  For his part, Trump appears unwilling to be involved and wants to let things “play out”.  That will be hard to do if US forces currently operating in Syria fighting ISIS are attacked by HTS, al-Qaeda, or ISIS in an attempt to pull the US into a wider conflict.

About Michael Snodgrass

Michael Snodgrass retired from the U.S. Air Force as a Major General in 2011. He is currently the President of SG Strategic Solutions LLC.

He has extensive command and leadership experience in the U.S. Air Force and joint world, as well as a wide range of disciplines, including defense and aerospace, technology development, government acquisitions and requirements, foreign military sales and leadership coaching.

He consults with the government, defense industry and other businesses on a wide range of topics. In 2019 he became an adjunct contract professor supporting the U.S. Air Force on strategy and policy development.

From 2014 to 2016 he was Vice President, International Business Development at Raytheon Corp. Prior to that he was Director of U.S. Air Force and Federal Aviation Administration programs at Engility Corp.

General Snodgrass joined Burdeshaw and Associates in 2012 and is a Senior Consultant for numerous clients in the defense and aerospace sectors. Prior to his retirement, he was U.S. Air Force Assistant Deputy Under Secretary for International Affairs; responsible for formulating and executing USAF Policy, Strategy and Programs for Building Partnerships and integrating Air Force policy with international partner goals, totaling over $40 billion total program value.

From 2007 to 2010 he served as the first Chief of Staff, U.S. Africa Command. There, he was responsible for the construction of the country’s newest Unified Geographic Command.

He has commanded at the squadron, group and wing levels and has lived in/visited over 50 nations while in uniform. He has over 3500 flight hours in various aircraft including the F-16, F-15, F-4, C-130 and HH-60, as well as over 100 combat missions in Operation Desert Storm.

In addition, General Snodgrass teaches leadership and management courses. In his spare time, he provides leadership coaching and training to the U.S. Air Force ROTC unit at Florida State University.

[1] See:  https://kidb.adb.org/economies/korea-republic-of

[2] See:  https://apnews.com/article/south-korea-martial-law-president-impeachment-53d787e9f04d32615e83aade47412174

[3] See:  https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Timeline-How-South-Korean-president-s-martial-law-bid-unraveled

[4] See:  https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/japan-korea-apec/korea#:~:text=U.S.%20goods%20and%20services%20trade,was%20%2435.7%20billion%20in%202022.

[5] See:  https://www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/documents/technology-evaluation/ote-data-portal/country-analysis/3426-2022-statistical-analysis-of-us-trade-with-south-korea

[6] See:  https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-korean-lawmakers-call-impeach-president-yoon-after-martial-law-rescinded-2024-12-04/

[7] See:  https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-korea-president-yoon-address-nation-ahead-impeachment-vote-2024-12-07/

[8] See:  https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/08/syria-doctor-to-brutal-dictator-rise-fall-bashar-al-assad

[9] See:  https://www.politico.com/news/2024/12/08/us-troops-stay-syria-shaheen-00193192

[10] See:  https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/12/10/syria-war-news-israel-hamas-gaza-lebanon/

[11] See:  https://www.timesofisrael.com/who-is-abu-mohammed-al-golani-leader-of-insurgency-that-toppled-syrias-assad/