“The global economy continues to reopen, but in a very uneven way and with signs of a spike in cases around the globe (China in particular) and the US,” Gregory Faranello, head of U.S. rates trading at AmeriVet Securities. “Even from the highest levels, there has been cautious optimism but very few definitive answers as we move forward.”
U.S. Treasury yields dropped on Monday as investors sought out shelter in traditionally safer bonds amid intensifying concerns over a second wave of coronavirus infections.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell 3 basis points to 0.667% while the 30-year bond rate dipped 4 basis points to 1.406%. Yields move inversely to prices.
“Not all news is good news,” said Oliver Brennan, macro strategist at TS Lombard, in a note.
“With evidence of a second wave in the US after the Memorial Day holiday and some EM countries still in the early stages of their crises, progress is distinctly non-linear,” said Brennan, adding that while risk assets such as stocks have rallied in recent weeks, the coronavirus crisis “is far from over.”
A number of states including Alabama, California, Florida and North Carolina have experienced a rise in Covid-19 cases since they began to reopen their economies. Texas and North Carolina reported record numbers of coronavirus-related hospitalizations on Saturday.
China, the original epicenter of the pandemic, is also subject to concern about a second wave, after Reuters reported that a district of Beijing is in a “wartime emergency” due to the discovery of a new cluster of infections centered around a wholesale market.
President Donald Trump is planning to push ahead with an indoor campaign rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma on Saturday despite local concern over an uptick in cases.
Risk assets worldwide are starting the week on the backfoot after a significant pullback last week, fueled by rising fears over a second wave and profit-taking following a recent surge in stock prices.
“The global economy continues to reopen, but in a very uneven way and with signs of a spike in cases around the globe (China in particular) and the US,” Gregory Faranello, head of U.S. rates trading at AmeriVet Securities, said in a note. “Even from the highest levels, there has been cautious optimism but very few definitive answers as we move forward.”
“In the end, a spike in cases along with increased testing should not be a surprise,” Faranello added.
Data out Monday showed manufacturing activity rebounded sharply in the New York area this month. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey posted a reading of -0.2 in June after hitting record lows in the previous two months. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had expected a reading of -35.