Executive Summary

• Trump has signed more executive orders than any president in over 40 years.
• It appears the Administration is following the Boyd decision-making model: the OODA loop which stands for Observe, Orient, Decide and Act
• The administration must keep moving to deal with follow-on consequences and stay ahead of the decision cycles of opponents and allies alike.
• In Syria, the U.S. is making plans to pull out while Russia has re-engaged with al-Sharaa in negotiations to keep two military bases.

Decision Making

In just three weeks President Trump has signed more executive orders (55) than any president in over 40 years.  The orders cut a wide swath of issues ranging from a fundamental restructure of the government, our approach to other nations, and daily lives of Americans.  These orders and their priority of implementation indicate a precise strategy and focus that can only be attributed to a protracted effort by the President and his team of advisors pre-dating the election by months.  The first executive order was “Ending the Weaponization of the Federal Government”, with specific tasks for the Attorney General and Director of National Intelligence to establish a “process to ensure accountability for the previous administration’s weaponization of the Federal Government against the American people.”[1]  Given the numerous legal activities taken against Trump and some of his allies the fact this was the first executive order is understandable.

The second order, however, was a massive document that rescinded 67 EO’s and 11 Presidential Memoranda from the previous administration.  Some of these were post-COVID orders, others were intended to shape the foundation of how the US implements and executes development of Artificial Intelligence or outline the order of succession in various departments of the government.  The titles belie the actual substance of many of these orders, for example the Biden EO on Advancing Effective and Accountable Policing and Criminal Justice would seem to be a positive move on supporting the rule of law. However, it was rescinded likely because of some left-leaning policies as well as the establishment of a National Law Enforcement Accountability Database.  The goal of this database was to build “a centralized repository of official records documenting instances of law enforcement officer misconduct as well as commendations and awards.”[2]  Misuse of such a database could ruin lives and careers.  Subsequent orders established their approach to things like Artificial Intelligence, assessing agencies like FEMA and USAID, enforcement of the Hyde Amendment (which prevents Federal funding of elective abortion), and establishing a White House Task Force on Celebrating America’s 250^th Birthday.

These and the other 55 EO’s that were signed indicate a long-term strategic approach and effort intended to rapidly act on multiple issues, having the effect (as described in several media reports) of “shock and awe”.  The ability of the minority party, and in many cases the media as well, to digest and evaluate the deluge of decisions has been challenged to say the least and, in many cases, simply overcome by the volume of actions.

Decision Process

Intentional or not, the approach by the Trump Administration is very close to the decision-making model first outlined by then Colonel Chuck Boyd:  the OODA loop which stands for Observe, Orient, Decide and Act.

A Brief History of Chuck Boyd

Boyd was a Vietnam War POW, shot down while flying his F-105 and spent 7 years in a POW camp.  On April 22, 1966, he volunteered for his 88th mission over North Vietnam. The operation was to destroy surface-to-air missile sites outside of Hanoi. He evaded two missiles and continued his attack before being hit by antiaircraft fire. He was awarded the Air Force Cross, the Air Force’s second highest decoration (after the Medal of Honor). The only Vietnam War POW to be promoted to four-star general, he was a 36-year veteran who held posts in Europe, Southeast Asia and the Pentagon. Gen. Boyd retired from the Air Force in 1995.  He later served as executive director of the Hart-Rudman Commission that reviewed the state of national security and seven months before the 9/11 terrorist attacks he called for creation of a new agency similar to what became the Department of Homeland Security.  General Boyd died on March 23, 2022.

Observe, Orient, Decide, Act

The OODA loop was designed to show fighter pilots how to win in air combat.  If pilots could execute this process faster and with greater effect than an adversary, then the enemy would eventually lose the engagement.  Boyd believed that the goal should be to operate inside your adversary’s OODA loop(s) to entrap the adversary in uncertainty, doubt, mistrust, confusion, disorder, fear, panic, or chaos.  The result is to fold them back inside himself so that he cannot cope with events/efforts as the battle progresses.  In one-on-one or many vs many combat this technique requires constant cycles of OODA with feedback on the last Act feeding the next cycle of Observation in a continuous loop. The result: the destruction of the enemy.  Flying at 900 feet per second or developing alternatives to policy, time is compressed, the enemy is disrupted and disoriented, and connections between critical centers of gravity (strengths) become vulnerable, creating a cascading collapse of the opponent.  Boyd showed us that given our heritage, culture, experience, analysis, synthesis of data and the OODA loops that bring all this together we can get inside decision cycles of adversaries to shape events in a way that makes perfect sense to us but creates an uncertain, everchanging and unpredictable world for the enemy.[3]

The OODA loop is an important concept in litigation, business, law enforcement, management education, military strategy, cyber security, and cyber warfare.  Created to help teach young pilots the complex and dynamic art of air warfare, OODA loop-based decision-making occurs in a continual, iterative cycle.  If an individual or organization can execute the cycle quickly, acting more rapidly and/or effectively than an opponent getting inside the opponent’s decision cycle to gain the advantage.  Jamie Dimon, chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, has said he uses the OODA loop in scenario evaluation, and it prevents the “greatest mistakes” in war and business.[4]

It is probable the Trump team began their OODA loop many months ago in preparation for Trump’s reelection.  The research necessary, the analysis of each executive action rescinded and the subsequent re-issue of EO’s that address many of the same topics, but from Trump’s unique approach, were likely the subject of many discussions and debates within the team.  How long this phase will last is yet to be apparent, but it may last for the entire first 100 days.  As that phase ends, the challenge will be for the administration to continue to be inside of the decision-making loop of nay-sayers and potential adversaries in order to advance the administration’s agenda.  There may also be a danger in the administration having to deal with third and fourth level unanticipated consequences, affecting their ability to keep numerous issues advancing while dealing with new wrinkles.  For example, despite promises from the Trump administration that a federal funding freeze would not apply to projects directly benefiting individuals, farmers report missing millions of dollars of funding they were promised by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Farmers who signed contracts with the USDA paid out of their own pockets to build fencing, plant new crops and install renewable energy systems with guarantees that the federal government would cover at least part of their costs with grants and loan guarantees. Freezing those funds puts farmers in some very tough spots.[5]

As of February 10^th, there are still 521 administration positions that require Senate Confirmation without a nominee.  These positions will be important to not only enact the many initiatives laid out in the first weeks of the administration (and those yet to come), but to deal with follow-on and follow-up issues that could derail the overall agenda.  If getting things done and keeping ahead of opponent’s decision cycles is the grading criteria for Trump’s second term, then his team is getting an A- or better.  Time will tell if they are able to get all these issues across the finish line as effectively as the first 21 days.

Syria Update

NBC News reported on February 4^th that the Defense Department is developing plans to withdraw all U.S. troops from Syria, citing two U.S. defense officials.  According to their source, President Donald Trump and officials close to him recently expressed interest in pulling U.S. troops out of Syria, with the staff now drawing up plans for a full withdrawal in 30, 60 or 90 days.  In late 2019, Trump ordered Defense Secretary James Mattis to withdraw all U.S. troops from Syria. Mattis pushed back against the plan and ultimately resigned in protest. Trump withdrew most U.S. troops but subsequently moved them back as a force designated to suppress ISIS remnants as well as help Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-led coalition of militias and rebel groups, provide security for about 50,000 persons and guard 9,000 ISIS fighters in prisons. The U.S. presence in Syria has continued since then.  In December, the Pentagon announced that roughly 2,000 troops were deployed to Syria, more than double the 900 number the military had claimed.

If the US pulls out, the SDF may release all ISIS prisoners and turn north to Turkey.  Turkey wants to eliminate the SDF and is discussing options with Syria’s leadership, led by Ahmed al-Sharaa, leader of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) Islamist militia that ousted Assad, and Syria’s newly appointed interim president. Turkish President Erdoğan backed HTS but has his own priorities. He wants 3 million displaced Syrians in Turkey to go home while Turkish companies compete for lucrative reconstruction contracts. Above all, he wants an end to what he views as the Kurdish terrorist threat to Turkey.

Al- Sharaa has proposed integration of Syrian Kurdish fighters in the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) into his new Syrian national army.  This approach will probably meet with a positive response from both Turkey and the US.  If the SDF fighters could become part of the Syrian Army, they would seemingly not clash with Turkey’s surrogate Syrian National Army (yes, another army in Syria) allowing Turkey to take the lead in keeping ISIS under control.[6]  This is a “best case” scenario however as so far, no nation has asked the SDF if they want to be absorbed by Sharaa’s forces.  Such a move would be a severe set back for Kurdish nationalists who want their own piece of the middle east carved out of territory controlled by Syria, Turkey and Iraq.

At the same time the US is making plans to pull out of Syria, Russia has re-engaged with al-Sharaa in negotiations to keep two military bases in the nation.  This is quite the turnabout as Putin supported the now exiled President Bashir Assad in a decade long campaign to kill Sharaa and eliminate HTS as a viable threat.  Recently, Russian diplomats were told that Moscow “must address past mistakes”. Sharaa also demanded that Assad be sent back from Moscow to face justice.[7]

Conclusions

The Trump administration is setting new records daily on enacting their agenda.  Many decisions will have second, third and fourth order effects that must be dealt with in order to keep the agenda on track.  The situation in Syria will be a test of the administration’s ability to keep their OODA loop cycle in front of events while the new Syrian government is ripe for US influence.  Al-Sharaa is trying to govern a multi-ethnic, multi-religious society exhausted by more than a decade of fighting and has already proved, in blood, that it is not willing to accept anything less than freedom.  Simply pulling US forces out of Syria may be attractive but is a simplistic answer to a very complex situation that might possibly be resolved in a way that advances American interests in the region.

[1] See:  https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/01/28/2025-01900/ending-the-weaponization-of-the-federal-government

[2] See:  https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2022/05/31/2022-11810/advancing-effective-accountable-policing-and-criminal-justice-practices-to-enhance-public-trust-and

[3] See:  https://www.coljohnboyd.com/static/documents/1995-06-28__Boyd_John_R__The_Essence_of_Winning_and_Losing__PPT-PDF.pdf

[4] See:  https://fortune.com/2024/04/09/jamie-dimon-jpmorgan-military-leadership-tactic-ooda-loop/

[5] See:  https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2025/02/10/farmers-agriculture-funding-frozen/?utm_campaign=wp_politics_am&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F41037bc%2F67a9e07072664728952087c8%2F5a0cc6d79bbc0f56493adbd1%2F13%2F45%2F67a9e07072664728952087c8

[6] See:  https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/2/4/syrias-al-sharaa-meets-erdogan-to-talk-kurdish-fighters-defence-pacts

[7] See:  https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/dod-drafting-plans-withdraw-us-troops-syria-recent-trump-comments-rcna190726

About Michael Snodgrass

Michael Snodgrass retired from the U.S. Air Force as a Major General in 2011. He is currently the President of SG Strategic Solutions LLC.

He has extensive command and leadership experience in the U.S. Air Force and joint world, as well as a wide range of disciplines, including defense and aerospace, technology development, government acquisitions and requirements, foreign military sales and leadership coaching.

He consults with the government, defense industry and other businesses on a wide range of topics. In 2019 he became an adjunct contract professor supporting the U.S. Air Force on strategy and policy development.

From 2014 to 2016 he was Vice President, International Business Development at Raytheon Corp. Prior to that he was Director of U.S. Air Force and Federal Aviation Administration programs at Engility Corp.

General Snodgrass joined Burdeshaw and Associates in 2012 and is a Senior Consultant for numerous clients in the defense and aerospace sectors.

Prior to his retirement, he was U.S. Air Force Assistant Deputy Under Secretary for International Affairs; responsible for formulating and executing USAF Policy, Strategy and Programs for Building Partnerships and integrating Air Force policy with international partner goals, totaling over $40 billion total program value.

From 2007 to 2010 he served as the first Chief of Staff, U.S. Africa Command. There, he was responsible for the construction of the country’s newest Unified Geographic Command.

He has commanded at the squadron, group and wing levels and has lived in/visited over 50 nations while in uniform. He has over 3500 flight hours in various aircraft including the F-16, F-15, F-4, C-130 and HH-60, as well as over 100 combat missions in Operation Desert Storm.

In addition, General Snodgrass teaches leadership and management courses. In his spare time, he provides leadership coaching and training to the U.S. Air Force ROTC unit at Florida State University.