Summary

• Diplomacy was unable to curb Iran’s nuclear program, at least in the time demanded by the US. Attacks continue as the US and Israel degrade and destroy Iran’s military and nuclear program. Regime change has been identified by Trump as a goal.

Nuclear negotiations between the U.S. and Iran in Geneva concluded without a breakthrough. The chances of a deal were uncertain from the jump, leading to a significant U.S. military build-up in the region. President Trump expressed dissatisfaction, stating he is not “thrilled” with Tehran’s lack of concessions, particularly on their nuclear program. Iran has shown some flexibility regarding uranium enrichment limitations for civilian use but has deemed its missile program and regional proxy network non-negotiable.

Trump wants Iran to have “no enrichment” of uranium that could go toward a nuclear bomb. Iran has enriched uranium in excess of 60% in recent years, far more than the 3.67% needed for nuclear power generation. Importantly, at 60% enrichment, it would take about 41.7 kilograms of total uranium for a functional (10KT) weapon according to The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. This means Iran’s stockpile of HEU could possibly support a small number of weapons at 60% although other technical problems would need to be solved.

Oman offered some hope, saying Iran had agreed to zero stockpiling of uranium, supposedly answering the enrichment question. Iran also agreed to degrade current stockpiles into fuel, said Oman’s foreign minister, Badr Albusaidi. This was offered in return for lifting all sanctions against Iran. The precise definition of stockpiling (vice storing) was avoided.

The U.S. and Israel launched a major attack on Iran on Saturday. Trump urged Iranians to “seize control of your destiny” by revolting against Islamic leadership. Israel’s military said 500 targets have been struck since the start of the operation. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was targeted in the strikes. It is likely the strikes will last several days as the operation seeks to achieve major damage to Iran’s infrastructure and military.

Trump has claimed Iran wants a missile that could reach the US. Although Iran’s scientific community has a history of surprising successes, they would need to overcome significant technological challenges to navigation, re-entry and detonation before that is possible. The question likely addressed in the decision process was, given the Iranian’s history of double talk and at best an uncooperative stance with the IAEA, why wait until they are “close”?

Pentagon spokesmen said in July that Iran’s program had been set back “one to two years.” Israeli intelligence services have deeply penetrated Iran’s nuclear work and planning. Israeli strikes last summer killed more than a dozen of Tehran’s top nuclear scientists.

Iran may use cyber warfare in response at least in part. There was a 700% increase in cyberattacks targeting Israel in the days following Israel’s military strikes in 2025.

Saudi Arabia said Iran targeted its capital and its eastern region in an attack. It called the attack “blatant and cowardly” and said it was repelled. Saudi Arabia condemned Iran’s attacks earlier Saturday, saying they “cannot be justified under any pretext or in any form and came despite the Iranian authorities’ knowledge that the Kingdom had affirmed it would not allow its airspace or territory to be used to target Iran.”

Bottom Line: Trump is tired of waiting for diplomacy. This operation will not end quickly. Regime change is unlikely without a significant popular uprising by Iran’s people.