• The odds of a first move in June were briefly set below 50%, as the economy’s resilience enables the Fed “to be patient,” AmeriVet Securities’ Gregory Faranello said.

Bond traders priced in fewer Fed rate cuts this year, as solid US factory data reinforced speculation the central bank will be in no rush.

• The odds of a first move in June were briefly set below 50%, as the economy’s resilience enables the Fed “to be patient,” AmeriVet Securities’ Gregory Faranello said.

June Rate Cut Back to 50% Odds

Fed swaps price in 12bp of cuts for June and 64bp of cuts by year-end

Change in Fed’s interest-rate target implied by overnight index swaps and SOFR futures. Fed dots use interpolation.

• Defying projections. US manufacturing expanded in March for the first time since 2022 on a sharp rebound in production and stronger demand, while input costs climbed.
• Bonds were in a bearish mood. Wall Street sent both stocks and bonds lower, with 10-year yields climbing over 10 basis points. Emerging-market assets also fell.
• Crash or soar? Traders are preparing for stock market extremes as concern grows that an unpriced risk could knock the bull market off its feet.