US rate markets are reversing course after a small safe-haven trade on Friday following a very robust retail sales number this morning. We are viewing the increased geopolitical risks through a supply side prism. The Fed will continue to focus on the domestic real economy, consumer, and inflationary dynamics. The economic data and market-based financial conditions are telling the Fed that neutral is higher. We expect the message from the Fed to remain consistent this week: no rush. Tomorrow, Chair Powell. And we believe he follows NY Fed President Williams from today with the notion of no rush but expectations still for the Fed to begin lowering rates at some point this year.

Get your updates each week with Gregory (Greg) Faranello, CFA Head of US Rates at AmeriVet Securities, Inc.