We emerge from the latest round of central bank meetings with a rate cut from the Swiss National Bank and a dovish tone from the ECB, BOE, and Chair Powell with markets and narrative pointing toward the June timeframe. In general, market-based financial conditions have been on the looser side since the Fed made a pivot in late 2023. And Fed Chair Powell has not pushed back in the first quarter of 2024. The next round of inflation and employment data will be important with the Fed’s dual mandate in better balance.

This week we get the Fed’s favored inflation metric in the PCE Deflator. We will also be watching a speech from Fed Governor Waller on Wednesday on the economic outlook and a Q/A session with Chair Powell Friday. Next week we await another employment report with a close eye on the household survey and wage numbers.

Get your updates each week with Gregory Faranello, CFA–Head of U.S. Rates at AmeriVet Securities.