The prospect of falling Fed rates next year keeps weighing on Treasury yields. October housing data due at 10am ET are expected to support the notion that rates are high enough. The CME’s FedWatch tool prices nearly 100% odds that the Fed will keep rates unchanged through May, when odds of a cut get higher. Fed-fund futures indicate markets expect at least three 25-basis point cuts in 2024. “The bar feels high for [the Fed] to move in either direction right now,” AmeriVet’s Gregory Faranello says in a note. The 10-year is at 4.455% and the two-year at 4.950%. Both fell last week.

By: Paulo Trevisani