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Treasury Yields Fall Amid Curve Flattening

Treasury yields fall across maturities as investors recalculate their estimates for the next Fed move following this week’s mild CPI data. The 10-year declines to 2.856% from Thursday’s 2.886% and the two-year is at 3.186% from 3.227%. The curve flattens, indicating investors may be less worried about recession, as bets on a softer 50-basis point hike in September increase. But analysts warn that markets may be getting too optimistic. “Core CPI is still running three times the Fed’s target,” AmeriVet’s Gregory Faranello says in a note to clients. “The inflation battle for the Fed is not over.”