Iran’s Recent Attacks: Potential Motivations and Rationale
Executive Summary
- After several attacks in recent years against Iranian military and proxy organizations, Iran responded with an attack of some 300 missiles against Israel.
- The attack was completely defeated, with only one reported injury to a seven-year-old Arab girl.
- Iran has said this constituted their response and, in their view, the crisis is over.
- Israel will monitor, but not attack, instead relying on the West and diplomacy for the immediate future. Israel continues to monitor Iran’s nuclear capability.
What Happened?
On Monday, April 1st, Israel attacked an Iranian consulate in Damascus at 5PM local time. The consulate was destroyed, killing seven people. The US was not given advance notice, which eliminated the possibility of the US warning to not attack. Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, senior Quds Force commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and his deputy General Hajriahimi were killed in the attack.
This is not the first time Israel has attacked Iranian capabilities working with their proxies in Syria. Iran supports numerous groups throughout the middle east in their efforts against Israel and the West. Iranian officers are frequently in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and regularly meet with Palestinian terrorist leaders. Early on January 2nd, 2023, Israel attacked the Damascus International Airport with the aim of putting the airport out of commission for arms movements from Iran. On Feb 12th, 2023, just after midnight local time, Israel attacked Damascus with missiles in the Kafr Sousa area housing IRGC leaders and agency headquarters as well as civilian neighborhoods. A year later, on January 20th, 2024, Israel attacked Damascus killing four Iranian military advisers and several members of Syrian forces. Iran’s official response was: “The Supreme Leader and Commander in Chief offered condolences and congratulations to the families of the great martyrs and to the fighters and commanders of the Islamic resistance front,” Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency reported, citing the IRGC.[1] No action was taken against Israel.
The attack on Israel by Iran is unprecedented in that it is a direct attack by Iran, not a proxy force. Numbers are still being computed, but it appears Iran’s attack involved more than 120 ballistic missiles, more than 30 cruise missiles and approximately 170 drones. Israel’s defenses, augmented by US and other allied fighter aircraft, shot down all of the incoming missiles, most before they reached Israel. Just hours prior, Iran seized a container ship in the Strait of Hormuz claiming it was supporting Israel.
Why Now?
Iran’s attack seems very calculated. Initially seen as a reaction to the Israeli attack in fact it is likely in response to pressure from the many Iranian proxy groups for Tehran to have more “skin in the game” … take action vice working in the background (providing financial and material support to Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and others). In addition, Iran’s self-proclaimed “regional leader” position could be at risk without a more active role.
That said, clearly Iran did not want an escalation. They provided enough warning for Israel and the US to be prepared for the attack. Iran set a precedent by attacking on January 17th of this year when IRGC forces hit a reported Mossad headquarters in Iraq, as well as targets in Syria and Pakistan. Iran appears to believe they can attack Israel without risk of retaliation if they give the IDF enough notice to prepare. In fact, news outlets were reporting a full 48 hours in advance that Iran was preparing the salvo. Israeli forces were recalled from leave, shelters were opened, GPS jammers were deployed into potential target areas and the IDF raised its air defense posture in preparation.
The type of attack was also risk adverse. Using drones to attack across Iraq and Syria gave a vital advantage to defense forces. Drones are slow, easy to detect and defenseless capability. The drones took several hours to fly from Iran and virtually all were destroyed prior to reaching any targets. Israel’s air defenses are well known. Iron Dome, David’s Sling and Arrow all have repeatedly shown the ability to shoot down incoming missiles. Several hours after launch, Iran said the operation was over and declared victory. Iran’s Chief of Staff General Mohammad Bageri stated, “We see this operation as a result (e.g., an end), and in our opinion, as over and there is no intention to continue it, and if the Zionist regime takes action against us, either on our soil or in the centers belonging to us in Syria, or another country does, our next operation will be bigger.”[2]
Clearly the launching of 300 missiles and drones is not an insignificant swat but given Iran’s understanding of the environment and IDF capabilities, it was a measured risk of avoiding any escalation. Israel for their part, given the already intense pressure from the West over Palestinian suffering, has so far only taken the step of asking the UN to condemn the attack. Iranian surrogates have made several statements asking for the US and the West to step in and de-escalate to prevent “full scale war” with Israel.
What Happens Next?
Israel will bide it’s time and lean on allies to work diplomatic options. An attack into Iran would clearly be an escalation and direct challenge to Iran’s leadership. Israel is struggling to manage public opinion while focusing on eliminating Hamas and freeing their hostages. Israel’s greatest concern is not drones, but a nuclear tipped missile aimed at Jerusalem. In February of this year, UN inspectors reported newly installed equipment at Iran’s Fordow plant producing enriched uranium with an expansion underway that could soon double the plant’s output. Also, Iran has scaled up production of highly enriched uranium just below weapons grade. They apparently have not resumed work on a delivery vehicle, but that program (halted many years ago) could be revived. While Iran hopes Israel will not respond, they are now openly discussing “deterrence” with Israel at the Fordow plant. Experts at the IAEA believe Iran is advancing the program slowly, collecting the capabilities necessary for a future weapon. In 2022, Kamal Kharrazi, adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, told Al Jazeera that Tehran has the ability to build nuclear weapons but does not intend to do so.[3] Israel and the West will be watching to see if this posture holds, but for now Israel will likely seek to remain the aggrieved party vis-à-vis Iran while making progress in Gaza.
Learn more about the author, Advisory Board member and retired U.S. Air Force Major General Michael Snodgrass.