Israel and Ukraine Update
Executive Summary
- Biden pressuring Netanyahu on Palestinian human costs but must be careful to not overreach and be rebuffed in an election year.
- Netanyahu will continue to claim that release of hostages and eliminating Hamas are equal in priority. He will resist pressure from the west and the Israeli left wing.
- More fighting in Gaza is likely, with no strategic vision on either side.
- Fighting continues sporadically in Ukraine. Having become more isolated, Russia has reached out to China and North Korea for assistance.
- Former President Trump sees no future in US support for Ukraine. If Ukraine is not resupplied this year, chances are 50/50 they could survive a major
Russian attack.
War in Gaza
Israel’s war against Hamas has continued for six months with varying success. In some ways, changing priorities within the Israeli government have caused uneven progress while actions on the ground have generated considerable international criticism, including from the US. Initially, Netanyahu’s government focused on hostages, with almost half of the initial 240 to 253 (reports still vary) hostages released over the past four months. Debate continued through November as the Israeli right wing opposed the ceasefire that eventually led to the hostage deal. This wing was more concerned with dismantling Hamas and keeping them from rebuilding their capabilities than hostage release. Eventually a majority of Israel’s cabinet voted for the deal. The exchange occurred on 23 November. Today, approximately 130, mostly Israeli, remain in Gaza while Israel’s citizens are split over cease fires for hostage release.
The numbers appear to include some that Israel has concluded have died in captivity. Officially Israel believes 34 of the remaining hostages are dead. In a recent assessment shared with the US and Egypt, they believe as many as 50 may be dead, leaving between 95 and 79 still prisoner.[1] The release of hostages in November followed severe fighting and subsequent control of northern Gaza by Israel. Recent Israeli withdrawals from southern Gaza could allow for progress on hostage returns, but it is unlikely due to the animosity between the two sides. Total release of the hostages is doubtful. Hamas has complicated negotiations by dispersing hostages among other factions. The Palestinian Islamic Jihad, a Hamas ally that the US has designated a terrorist organization, said in October it was holding more than 30 people abducted on Oct. 7.[2]
Palestinian groups have continued to wage war as well. As of April 8th, over 11,278 rockets have been launched from the Gaza Strip, South Lebanon, and Syria into Israel, averaging 62 per day. Since the beginning of the war, approximately 250,000 Israeli citizens have been displaced. Among them, around 164,000 received instructions or recommendations from the government to evacuate, with compensation provided.
Surveys of Israeli citizens show most support a hard line by the government. Despite the progress of the war and continuing harsh criticism of Israel from the international community regarding Palestinian suffering, a large majority of the Jewish public (80%) think Israel should not consider the impact on Palestinian civilians. Moreover, the feeling in Israel is the government should act based on their best judgement (49%), and not coordinate with the US. This data has changed slightly over the past six months as only 39% believe the government should coordinate with the US.
In the future, it is somewhat likely that public protests against the war and specifically President Netanyahu’s leadership will occur. Although mostly Arabs and left leaning Israeli citizens, such protests will be heavily covered by the western press.
The US political climate complicates an already difficult situation, additional actions by President Biden pressuring Israel will be met with mixed feelings. Biden cannot be seen by his far-left wing to be walking away from the impact on Palestinians, but also cannot overreach in his pressure on Israeli leaders without risk of being publicly rebuked (again) by Israel. For example, the proposed jetty for humanitarian aid is seen by the Israeli left as slightly helpful (43%) to neutral, while the right (67%) sees such an action as weakening the Israeli governments bargaining power to secure the release of more hostages.[3] US personnel building the jetty will be at increased risk of attack as well.
Near-term, Netanyahu will continue to claim that release of hostages and eliminating Hamas as a threat are equal priorities. He will resist the west and his left wing while insisting the Israeli military avoid mistakes such as last weeks attack on the aid convoy. In a nationally broadcast news conference, Netanyahu vowed to press ahead with the offensive until Israel realizes a “decisive victory over Hamas.” He also rejected Palestinian statehood. He said he had relayed his positions to the Americans.[4] Given the fractionalized nature of Palestinian internal relationships (nine groups exist, all with security/armed forces)[5] and the fact there is no geography that could support a contiguous state, Netanyahu is likely correct. As for the Palestinians, an official in Cairo said a deadlock continues due Israel’s refusal accede to Palestinian demands: end the war, withdraw IDF forces from Gaza, allow hundreds of thousands of displaced civilians to return to their homes and lift a 17-year-old blockade to allow speedy reconstruction. In their view, these steps must be done prior to hostage releases exchanges for Palestinians held in Israel.[6]
Four scenarios are possible. After a period of refitting and review, Israel could launch more operations to eliminate Hamas and find hostages. Second, low level conflict could continue with sporadic surges by both sides, particularly in contested or ungoverned areas. Less likely is a Hamas offensive that could push the IDF out and reestablish Hamas control. Even less probable is another actor such as the Palestinian Authority taking control of Gaza. It is more conceivable that the first alternative will play out in weeks or months. The problem with that alternative, is that the Israeli government has not thought, at least in public, about what happens after Hamas is destroyed…who would control Gaza while Iran tries to fan the flames of resistance and fund whatever group replaces Hamas?
Russia and Ukraine
The war continues, stagnant in some areas and with surprising moves by both sides in others. Since the Russian invasion, the U.S. has provided, through presidential drawdown authority and the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, more than $44.2 billion in security assistance to Ukraine. Included in the materiel sent to Ukraine: air defense systems, radar systems, artillery systems, tanks, helicopters, ground-combat and support vehicles, unmanned aerial systems, missiles, rockets, and millions of rounds of small arms ammunition. In addition, the U.S. and partners have trained more than 123,000 Ukrainians at more than 80 locations around the world.
Human Rights Watch reports that Russian forces have committed a series of violations of international humanitarian law, including indiscriminate / disproportionate bombing of civilian areas: targeting homes, healthcare, and educational facilities. In occupied areas HRW claims Russian or Russian-affiliated forces committed war crimes, including torture, summary executions, sexual violence, and looting of cultural property.
Fighting along the 620-mile front continues in pockets, as Ukraine launches attacks deep into Russia (drones) and other occupied territories.Russia has fortified their lines and built layers of defense. Increasingly isolated, Russia has reached out to the only potential partners possible. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visited China on April 9th, 2024, for talks to shore up Russia’s economy. His Chinese counterpart Wang Yi said that China would continue to deepen its trading and economic relationship with Moscow while Western allies try to isolate Putin. At a time when US support appears fragile, China’s commitment to a future economic relationship is welcome news for Putin.[7]
The lack of support from the US could not come at a worse time. Ukraine anticipates Russian offensive operations to intensify by late spring or early summer. This includes strong raids in the Donbas (which includes Donetsk).[8] Gen. Valerii Zaluzhny was replaced as commander in chief of Ukraine’s armed forces, in part because Zelensky was unhappy about his support for another 500,000 troops. After months of debate, Ukraine lowered the age for conscription from 27 to 25 last week in an effort to build up their force.
Former President Trump sees no future in US support for Ukraine despite a somewhat unprecedented lobbying campaign from some leaders in Europe. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán met Trump March 8th, 2024, at Mar-a-Lago, and told Hungarian state media
that Mr. Trump “will not give a penny in the Ukraine-Russia war. Therefore, the war will end, because it is obvious that Ukraine cannot stand on its own feet.”[9]
Ukraine is not winning and has no clear path to victory. Russia has selected some specific geographic targets for aggressive attacks. For example, Russian forces launched multiple attacks over the winter against the town of Avdiivka to disallow Ukraine’s forces from using the town as a launch point for an offensive into Donetsk, and possibly a future offensive to cut Russian forces in half at their most narrow point in occupied Ukraine. are also covered by OSD’s strategy (highlighted in RED above). Both the Deputy Chief Technology Officer for Critical Technologies and the Director OSC are direct reports for the Under Secretary R&E. In fact, the Secretary has 13 direct reports with the addition of OSC. This presents bureaucratic challenges as lanes intersect within OSD.
Ukraine has moved out of the town, and Russian forces (depleted from months of hard winter fighting) have not consolidated their gains. President Zelensky said the decision to withdraw was taken to save soldiers’ lives and blamed faltering Western weapons supplies.[10] For months, Ukraine’s leadership and many NATO nations have predicted ammunition shortages, and the effect on the fighting. Artillery is especially important for reducing Russian defenses prior to any ground offensive and repelling Russian attacks. Since the US supplied 155mm Howitzers to Ukraine, those shells are crucial and in very short supply. Shortages also exist for other systems, particularly air defense, and all point to the same outcome: a protracted and stagnant front line which Russia can probe and exploit at a time of their choosing. NATO believes Russia currently lacks the units necessary to mount a large-scale, successful attack.[11] That may change as Russia builds toward a late spring offensive.
There are few likely paths forward in this conflict. US support, or lack, is the linchpin. Support for Ukraine has become a political issue in the US election, which has also migrated into the debate in Congress. Last fall, the administration asked for over $60 billion to help support Ukraine, but more than six months later the funding has languished due to opposition from Trump and, as a result, Republican lawmakers. Although NATO nations have made strides in supplying Ukraine with ammunition, an assured volume of resupply is critical for any long range planning that might lead to an offensive to end the conflict. Without those guarantees, Ukraine must ration their ammo supplies and take risks on the front line where Russia continues to build combat power.
If Ukraine is not substantially resupplied this year, the chances are about even they could survive a major Russian attack until winter.However, if Russia believes Trump has a real chance at winning, they may use the time to build up their forces. RUSI, a U.K., think tank, reports that Russian industry expects to increase 152mm shell production to 1.3 million rounds this year and produce 800,000 122mm rounds over the same period. With the addition of two million 122mm rounds arriving from North Korea, Moscow will have just over four million shells for a future offensive. The European Union last year promised a million shells for Ukraine, but on January 31st of this year, EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell admitted they fell well short of that goal. Instead, members gave 524,000 shells, 52% of promised as of March 2024, according to. Efforts in Europe to step up production are evident. Norwegian-Finnish ammo maker Nammo recently started 24-hour production and Germany’s Rheinmetall announced a new plant which will eventually produce 200,000 shells a year, plus one in Ukraine with a local partner to produce “a six-digit number of 155mm (shells) per year in the future”. The U.K has supplied 300,000 rounds of various calibers to Ukraine and has committed to an eight-fold increase in 155mm production capability, with new BAE Systems’ production lines expected to be operational by 2025.[12]
However, a Trump inauguration in January 2025 could be a starting gun for Russia to launch a massive attack into Ukraine before any substantial resupply can arrive. A defeat of Ukraine would have effects reaching well beyond their contested border with Russia, including validation of Russian aggression and tactics. After invasions of Georgia, Crimea and Ukraine, Putin needs no additional motivation for future military campaigns.
Learn more about the author, Advisory Board member and retired U.S. Air Force Major General Michael Snodgrass.
[1] See: Hamas Took More Than 200 Hostages From Israel. Here’s What We Know. – WSJ
[2] Ibid
[3] See: Majority of Israelis give low ratings to Prime Minister Netanyahu; high ratings to IDF Chief of Staff – The Israel Democracy Institute (idi.org.il) . Data collection March 18–21, 2024, with 578 men and women interviewed via internet and telephone in Hebrew and 159 in Arabic.
[4] See: Israel-Hamas war: Live updates and latest news | AP News
[5] See: https://ecfr.eu/special/mapping_palestinian_politics/introduction_armed_groups/
[8] See: https://www.understandingwar.org/
[10] See: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682
[11] See: https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/04/politics/ukraine-munition-shortages/index.html