Israel Prepares to Invade as Hamas Stalls

Update: Israel prepared to invade, Hamas stalling

Executive Summary

The attack, methods and tactics used by Hamas on October 7^th fundamentally changed the nature of the conflict with Israel.
Israel’s military ordered about 100,000 civilians in Rafah to evacuate “immediately”
Soon after, Hamas announced it has accepted an Egyptian-Qatari proposal for a cease-fire in the seven-month war with Israel. Israel has not responded to the plan.
Issues remain in the region with Saudi’s rapprochement with Israel in the mix along with US pressure on Israel and Qatar.
A Palestinian state is unacceptable to the Israelis, unworkable and not realistic.

Israel ready to move in Gaza—Hamas Accepts Cease Fire Proposal…for now

Israel has consistently said it would eventually invade Rafah. Many factors may have influenced the delay in starting that operation: International pushback from the U.S. and other countries, the attack by Iran, refitting and preparations for the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), continuing efforts to secure the release of hostages, cease fire discussions, questions about the eventual status of the 1 million+ displaced Palestinian still in the city and the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza have each to a degree delayed that phase of the operation. On Monday, 6 May, Hamas announced it accepted an Egyptian-Qatari proposal for a cease-fire in the seven-month war with Israel.

Hours earlier, Israel’s military ordered about 100,000 civilians in parts of Rafah to evacuate “immediately” to a humanitarian zone, saying it will operate with “extreme force” in those areas. The Israeli military dropped leaflets with maps detailing several eastern neighborhoods in Rafah for Palestinians to evacuate, warning that an attack was imminent and anyone who stays “puts themselves and their family members in danger.” Text messages and radio broadcasts repeated the message. This followed a warning issued to Hamas by Israel on 2 May to agree to a cease-fire deal or risk a major military operation in Rafah. Egyptian officials reported last Friday that Hamas was holding out for better terms that would ensure its survival. The Israeli’s then left the talks, as it appeared Hamas wanted to end the conflict permanently while Israel was only willing to have a cease fire in return for hostages. The Egyptian/Qatari proposal was relatively precise: an initial period of calm for up to 40 days, during which Hamas would release up to 33 hostages, with the possible negotiation of a long-term cease-fire to follow. After the 40-day period of calm, following phases would include a cease-fire of at least six weeks during which Hamas and Israel would commit to agree on the release of more hostages and an extended pause in fighting that could last up to a year.[1]

Israel says the last remaining Hamas battalions are hiding in Rafah and has argued that a major military campaign there is essential. Also in the city are hundreds of thousands of civilians who fled to the city during and after Israeli operations elsewhere in Gaza to free hostages and eliminate Hamas. International pressure on Israel is significant, but by itself not enough to delay the operation barring an agreement by Hamas on the cease fire and hostage release. Egypt, the European Union, the United Nations, Jordan, the International Rescue Committee, and others, have warned Israel that an invasion would cause grave humanitarian risks to civilians in the city.

Israel’s announcement on Monday was precipitated by Hamas declaring that the proposal is not specific enough, which means Hamas was looking for guarantees that it could survive as a political and military entity. This appeared to be another attempt by Hamas to delay and obfuscate discussions instead of truly negotiating for peace. As a result, Israel pulled out of the talks over the weekend and issued the evacuation order. Israel believed that only through the perceived threat of force, and the belief by Hamas that they had the political will to launch the operation despite international political pressure, was the only way to get Hamas to agree to a deal. On Wednesday 1 May, Osama Hamdan, a top Hamas official, had expressed skepticism, saying the group’s initial position on the proposal was “negative.” Speaking to Hezbollah’s Al-Manar TV, he said that talks were still ongoing but would stop if Israel invades Rafah. The U.S. then stepped up pressure on Hamas, pointing out the compromises made by Israel. Talks resumed on Saturday, without Israeli representation, and included Egypt and Qatar who has been under pressure from the US for over a month to find a resolution.

Other Players

In April, the United States told Qatar that it should expel Hamas if the group continues to reject a cease-fire with Israel. Secretary of State Antony Blinken delivered the message to Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani. The Biden administration sees an agreement as vital to easing the turmoil throughout the Middle East. Israel, the United States and European nations do not communicate directly with Hamas because of the group’s terrorist designation, making Qatar a vital go-between. Qatari officials advised Hamas leadership — including Ismail Haniyeh, the group’s political leader who lives in Doha, Qatar’s capital — that they should have a backup plan for residency should they be told to leave.[2] Qatar has grown increasingly frustrated with mounting U.S. and Israeli criticism of its ties to Hamas and announced last month that it would reevaluate its status as a mediator, also putting indirect pressure on Hamas. But since Hamas has two distinct organizations, the Political wing in Qatar and the Military, based in Gaza, discussions are (probably intentionally) complex. The final decision on the deal was made by Hamas’ top military leader Yehiya Sinwar, who is believed to be in hiding in the group’s maze of tunnels beneath Gaza.

One potential motivation for the October 7^th attack was the impending bilateral security accord between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Derailing that agreement, or at least delaying ratification, initially seemed to have worked for Hamas. Despite the price paid by Hamas for the delay, the agreement appears to be moving forward again, and may be part of a wider package presented to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Netanyahu will have to decide whether to make other concessions to secure this relatively historic deal with Riyadh. Part of the plan is reported to call for formal U.S. guarantees to defend the kingdom (Iran presenting the most viable threat to Saudi) as well as Saudi access to more advanced U.S. weaponry and technologies in return for halting Chinese arms purchases and restricting Beijing’s investment in the country.[3] No deal is likely to happen soon. One reason is Saudi Arabia’s calls for an immediate truce leading to a permanent and sustainable ceasefire (timing not specified by Saudi) and concrete steps toward establishment of an independent Palestinian state. But Saudi Arabia has made clear there will be no normalization deal while the conflict in Gaza is still ongoing. This new plan combined with the cease fire may allow for further discussions, but the demand for a separate Palestinian state remains a significant obstacle.

Why the Israeli Hard Line?

The Hamas invasion and attack on 7 October was brutal and altered the nature of the conflict between Hamas and Israel. Not only were 1,200 people slaughtered, but recent reports and videos of sexual violence against hostages have gone relatively unnoticed by the world community. Despite overwhelming evidence of Hamas’ use of sexual violence as a weapon of war during and after the attack, the world has mostly turned a blind eye to the atrocities. This includes a recent report from the United Nations finding evidence of sexual abuse at the Nova music festival. A two-month investigation by The New York Times uncovered graphic new details and proved that the attacks against women were not isolated events as reported early in the conflict, but part of a broad pattern of sexual intimidation and violence on Oct. 7 and afterwards.

Using video footage, photographs, GPS data from mobile phones and interviews with more than 150 people, including witnesses, medical personnel, soldiers and rape counselors, The Times identified at least seven locations where Israeli women and girls appear to have been sexually assaulted or mutilated.[4] A YouTube video by released hostages and families also describes their treatment by Hamas.[5]

If accepted, will the Peace Hold?

The attack, methods, and tactics used by Hamas fundamentally changed the nature of the conflict with Israel. Israel’s stated objectives to secure release of the hostages and eliminate Hamas as a threat going forward are both continuing priorities for the Israeli government. If the cease fire plan ultimately holds, and the hostages released, there may be a break in the conflict. However, if Israel sees an opportunity to eliminate Hamas Military leadership or a significant part of the remaining fighters in Rafah, they will seriously consider another offensive to reduce or eliminate this threat. Hamas seemed to be working against peace when they attacked Israel Monday. Israel responded with a “limited operation” that included air strikes and a small tank incursion near the Rafah crossing. Israel now controls the Gazan side of the crossing.[6] Israel informed Cairo in advance about its plan to seize the Rafah crossing on the Gaza side and assured them it would be a targeted military operation. Egypt’s Foreign Ministry subsequently condemned the Israeli operations in Rafah. Egypt warned Israeli officials that any attempt to expand Israeli control across the Philadelphi Corridor wouldn’t be tolerated, mostly because Cairo fears the onslaught of refugees from Gaza but also because of the continuing humanitarian

The ultimate decision on a cease fire hinges on the Hamas demand for an end to the war, without Israeli occupation, and Israel’s willingness to only allow a cease fire with the return of some hostages, for now. This will also be balanced by the remaining hostages and international pressure from regional players as well as the US and the EU. In the US this has become a political issue for President Biden as protests across the nation continue to paint his administrations’ efforts as inadequate despite the announcement on 6 May.

If Israel launches a major operation to destroy the remaining Hamas military battalions, they may find that occupying Gaza without a plan for governance will become intolerable. Palestinians will fight against any occupation, and without a governance solution for the area, factions will be launching uncoordinated attacks against the IDF in an urban setting. This is not a good long-term solution for any military force as building-to-building fighting is dangerous and gives the advantage to the defenders while exposing ground troops to constant harassment attacks.

A Palestinian State?

Long-term the chances for a Palestinian state are dim. The dispersed nature of the Palestinian people across Israel and the fractured political arrangements between Hamas, Hezbollah, the PLO and their many factions (a total of nine groups all with internal military arms) make any sort of unified Palestinian state politically challenging. Palestinians simply have no political body that represents all of the factions. People in Gaza will resist moving to the West Bank, and the dispersed factions in the West Bank often discuss their goal of “from the river to the sea”, which actually means the state of Israel would cease to exist. A tentative peace is possible, and if Hamas can resist the urge to lash out at Israel in the next few weeks, then hostage exchanges and a return to a more normal existence might be possible in the short term. In any event it will take many years to rebuild the devastated neighborhoods in Gaza, but the memories of the conflict and its root causes will remain for generations.

Learn more about the author, Advisory Board member and retired U.S. Air Force Major General Michael Snodgrass.

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