Russia continues to bomb Ukraine, but it was recently reported that a small number of Russian missiles crossed into Poland – a member of NATO – killing two people on November 15, 2022.

We only have early reports and as the details mature, we will learn more. What we know now is that Poland will meet internally first, then some courses of action will play out:

• Russia could admit errant missiles crossed the border but were not targeted against Poland. They will either apologize or admit it was an error. Reparations will likely not be offered immediately but may be discussed later.                                                                               – We anticipate the Russians will likely ask for proof, then an investigation to give themselves more time to figure out                         what happened. That would possibly last a few days and then either admit a mechanical error happened or, if they think                   they can get away with it, say it was not them.
• Russia could claim it is a Ukrainian plot to discredit them and their missiles did not miss their targets. That story will likely not survive the next 72 hours as missile fragments will be discovered, proving Russian manufacture.
• Poland may ask for a NATO ruling and statement reinforcing Article 5. A statement from NATO could include language that another such “error” must be viewed as a possible attack against NATO, and they should be clear about the options that they have in that event.
• NATO Secretary General, Mr. Jens Stoltenberg, will attend the virtual ministerial Ukraine Defense Contact Group. The issue will likely be discussed there and possibly issue a communique condemning the event and calling for an investigation or apology.
• NATO could also call a summit. If they feel they need to take immediate action, that event could be another virtual summit as they did in Feb 2022. The Virtual Summit takes less logistical time and effort to set up. If they want to give the situation some time to cool down and let the intelligence agencies find out more information, they could schedule an in-person summit at almost any time. If it is scheduled in the next few weeks that indicates a higher level of concern and seriousness, if they wait until after Christmas that may indicate they want to send a message but do not feel it was intentional at this point.

About Michael Snodgrass

Michael Snodgrass retired from the U.S. Air Force as a Major General in 2011. He is currently the President of SG Strategic Solutions LLC.

He has extensive command and leadership experience in the U.S. Air Force and joint world, as well as a wide range of disciplines, including defense and aerospace, technology development, government acquisitions and requirements, foreign military sales and leadership coaching.

He consults with the government, defense industry and other businesses on a wide range of topics. In 2019 he became an adjunct contract professor supporting the U.S. Air Force on strategy and policy development.

From 2014 to 2016 he was Vice President, International Business Development at Raytheon Corp. Prior to that he was Director of U.S. Air Force and Federal Aviation Administration programs at Engility Corp.

General Snodgrass joined Burdeshaw and Associates in 2012 and is a Senior Consultant for numerous clients in the defense and aerospace sectors.

Prior to his retirement, he was U.S. Air Force Assistant Deputy Under Secretary for International Affairs; responsible for formulating and executing USAF Policy, Strategy and Programs for Building Partnerships and integrating Air Force policy with international partner goals, totaling over $40 billion total program value.

From 2007 to 2010 he served as the first Chief of Staff, U.S. Africa Command. There, he was responsible for the construction of the country’s newest Unified Geographic Command.

He has commanded at the squadron, group and wing levels and has lived in/visited over 50 nations while in uniform. He has over 3500 flight hours in various aircraft including the F-16, F-15, F-4, C-130 and HH-60, as well as over 100 combat missions in Operation Desert Storm.

In addition, General Snodgrass teaches leadership and management courses. In his spare time, he provides leadership coaching and training to the U.S. Air Force ROTC unit at Florida State University.